THREES ARE DUMB!

pic by KUAD

I’m not going to double check if this is true, but I try not to bring my own hoops baggage into the newsletter when I can help it. Today, I can’t.

I am a ball sicko, which means that in addition to watching college basketball even when it’s at a little bit of a pop culture nadir, I watch lots of NBA ball too, which includes the team based where I live, the New Orleans Pelicans. In the recent past, many of the Pelicans’ troubles revolve around their lack of three-point shooting; two wing players, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram, had made much of their bread shooting long twos, middies in the common sicko parlance. Stepping back two feet would not only drastically improve all of their player efficiency metrics—the Pelicans would also be shot out of the gym way less often (3>2, it’s math!). In a sport rippling with elite athletes and finishers, shooting has proven to be the X-factor. Everyone wants more of it, no matter if you’re a contender or you’re tanking to find your next shooter.

This is the game now. Basketball is fluid, and I think rule changes are coming (get rid of corner threes for one year, see what happens, bring them back if the game changes too much. There is precedent for this!) Not only are NBA players shooting way more 3s, they’re making them at a higher percentage than any other decade. I can’t help but think it—the longer KU hides from the three-ball, the more it feels like they’re treading water in the wider landscape of ball. Some sort of correction is coming.

[Theatric sigh] Alright, let’s talk about the extremely bad BYU loss now.

A concept I like to think about across sports is “score how you score”—while elite passing offenses are shortcuts to titles in the modern NFL, there are many ways to put points on the board. If you score by running the ball, run the ball. Score how you score!

KU’s shoots three pointers at a rate that ranks 311th in D1 basketball. That is a wild number in the modern game. While KU will win plenty of games scoring how they score—high-value twos—and playing classic Bill Self defense, it’s a high-floor situation, not a high-ceiling one. While the BYU loss was shocking, it fits a narrative, one that Bill Self has begun to hammer in recent comments.

As usual, Self is saying stuff out loud. The McCullar situation is weighing on the Jayhawks. Misfires in the portal—which I think are partially just bad luck! UConn wanted Timberlake too!—have sapped this team’s depth. This team seems to have two lottery picks and a third almost-certain NBA player, yet the general skill level and style versatility feels underwhelming compared to the last half-decade of Self teams.

You come here for a vibe-check, I hope. Right now, he vibes are low. Bill Self’s promise to play BYU “outside-in” was a misdirect—in multiple situations late in the BYU game, a defender helped inside, allowing a shooter to walk into a wide-open three. This is the blueprint for beating us—three-pointers are the great equalizer. We can’t run from that fact. This team is not a fun watch, and the fact that the spacing looks like this is not helping things:

The Kevin McCullar situation is a strange one. McCullar came to KU to make it to the NBA, and sharpen his skills in our ready-made wing factory. It has completely worked, and he’s a lottery pick on NBA Draft Net right now. (Ugh Furphy is up to #12? Link me to the Johnny Furphy NIL fund). In a sense, this aspect is Mission Accomplished for Kev. His end goal was the NBA, and he’s earned it. In the NIL era—he’s getting paid whether he sits or plays—I wonder how much that changes the calculus. I expect Kevin to make a decision that he’s going to play again this season. He seems like a good teammate, but then again, we’re pretty in the dark of the extent of the injury. If it was you, what would you do, if your dream was in reaach? That’s what I’m asking myself right now.

KU will correct. Anytime I get annoyed at some style quirk, Self makes me regret it. There’s a track record here. The fanbase has long fantasized about an expectations-free March, one where missing the Final Four feels fine. We were the preseason #1, but what was on paper just didn’t translate to the wood. That’s OK. March requires two weekends of good ball. Let’s hope we find something before then.